The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected that the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, may rise to about ₦950 per litre in 2026, according to its latest macroeconomic outlook.
Titansloaded reports that the projection is contained in the CBN’s 2026 economic forecast, which outlines key assumptions around global oil prices, foreign exchange stability, and domestic crude oil production.
The apex bank based its estimate on an average global crude oil price of $55 per barrel and a relatively stable exchange rate, with the naira projected to average ₦1,400 to the dollar in 2026 following modest improvements in foreign exchange liquidity.
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CBN also assumed that Nigeria’s crude oil production would average about 1.5 million barrels per day throughout the year, supported by enhanced operational efficiency and improved asset protection within the oil-producing regions.
According to the report, increased private-sector participation in domestic refining is expected to play a significant role in moderating fuel supply pressures, even as pricing remains sensitive to global market conditions and exchange rate movements.
The bank noted that expanded refining capacity, particularly from large-scale local refineries, would reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and help stabilize fuel availability nationwide.
CBN further projected that headline inflation could ease to 12.94 percent in 2026, compared to an estimated 21.26 percent in 2025, partly due to improved energy supply conditions and increased competition in the downstream sector.
At present, petrol prices remain below the projected 2026 benchmark, following recent adjustments by local refiners and distributors that have helped lower retail prices in some parts of the country.
Industry analysts cited in the outlook warned, however, that renewed reliance on imports could push pump prices significantly higher, underscoring the importance of sustaining local refining operations.
The forecast has sparked public debate, with stakeholders urging continued investment in refining infrastructure and policy stability to cushion consumers against sharp fuel price fluctuations.
CBN emphasised that its projection is not a price directive but an economic estimate based on prevailing macroeconomic indicators and anticipated market trends.
